The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model

@article{citeulike:2402832, abstract = {From the government's perspective, it is very important to estimate the growing path of the mobile Internet market and then to forecast the trend. The purpose of this paper is to propose a diffusion model that reveals the growth pattern of the mobile Internet subscriber in Taiwan utilizing the concepts of the "technical substitution" and the "multi-product competition", which suits the characteristics in the mobile Internet market in Taiwan. From the regression results, the estimated ultimate market potential of GPRS is 6.4 million, which is going to saturate in about 2008Q1. On the other hand, the estimated range of the market potential of PHS/3G is about 7.2 to 8.0 million. That is, the total mobile Internet market in Taiwan is forecasted to be around 13.6 to 14.4 million subscribers.}, author = {Chu, Chih-Peng and Pan, Jin-Gu }, citeulike-article-id = {2402832}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.11.012}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, keywords = {diffusion, forecasting, mobile, mobile\_internet}, posted-at = {2008-02-20 13:29:16}, priority = {2}, title = {The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.11.012}, volume = {In Press, Corrected Proof} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:2402832 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2402832 TI - The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change VL - In Press, Corrected Proof N2 - From the government's perspective, it is very important to estimate the growing path of the mobile Internet market and then to forecast the trend. The purpose of this paper is to propose a diffusion model that reveals the growth pattern of the mobile Internet subscriber in Taiwan utilizing the concepts of the "technical substitution" and the "multi-product competition", which suits the characteristics in the mobile Internet market in Taiwan. From the regression results, the estimated ultimate market potential of GPRS is 6.4 million, which is going to saturate in about 2008Q1. On the other hand, the estimated range of the market potential of PHS/3G is about 7.2 to 8.0 million. That is, the total mobile Internet market in Taiwan is forecasted to be around 13.6 to 14.4 million subscribers. KW - diffusion KW - forecasting KW - mobile KW - mobile_internet AU - Chu, Chih-Peng AU - Pan, Jin-Gu UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.11.012 ER -