Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts

@article{citeulike:233105, abstract = {This paper investigates the forecasting performance and confidence of experts and non-experts. 251 participants with four different levels of knowledge of soccer (ranging between expertise and almost ignorance) took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of World Cup 2002. The participating experts (i.e., sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) and the non-experts were found to be equally accurate and better than chance. A simple prediction rule that followed world rankings outperformed most participants. Experts overestimated their performance and tended to be overconfident, while the opposite tendency was observed for the participants with limited knowledge. Providing non-experts with information did not improve their performance, but increased their confidence.}, author = {Andersson, Patric and Edman, Jan and Ekman, Mattias }, citeulike-article-id = {233105}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.004}, journal = {International Journal of Forecasting}, keywords = {confidence, expertise, prediction}, posted-at = {2006-10-11 16:05:29}, priority = {2}, title = {Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.004}, volume = {In Press, Corrected Proof} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:233105 L3 - citeulike-article-id:233105 TI - Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts JF - International Journal of Forecasting VL - In Press, Corrected Proof N2 - This paper investigates the forecasting performance and confidence of experts and non-experts. 251 participants with four different levels of knowledge of soccer (ranging between expertise and almost ignorance) took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of World Cup 2002. The participating experts (i.e., sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) and the non-experts were found to be equally accurate and better than chance. A simple prediction rule that followed world rankings outperformed most participants. Experts overestimated their performance and tended to be overconfident, while the opposite tendency was observed for the participants with limited knowledge. Providing non-experts with information did not improve their performance, but increased their confidence. KW - confidence KW - expertise KW - prediction AU - Andersson, Patric AU - Edman, Jan AU - Ekman, Mattias UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.004 ER -