Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing

@article{citeulike:2136804, abstract = {Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or "environmental") meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100\% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation. 10.1073/pnas.0705494104}, author = {Trapp, Robert J. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Brooks, Harold E. and Baldwin, Michael E. and Robinson, Eric D. and Pal, Jeremy S. }, citeulike-article-id = {2136804}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705494104}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, keywords = {anthropogenic, climate, extreme, precipitation, projections, radiative-forcing, regional, storm, us, weather}, month = {December}, number = {50}, pages = {19719--19723}, posted-at = {2007-12-17 14:57:51}, priority = {2}, title = {Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705494104}, volume = {104}, year = {2007} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:2136804 L3 - citeulike-article-id:2136804 N2 - Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or "environmental") meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation. 10.1073/pnas.0705494104 IS - 50 JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences EP - 19723 TI - Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing VL - 104 SP - 19719 KW - anthropogenic KW - climate KW - extreme KW - precipitation KW - projections KW - radiative-forcing KW - regional KW - storm KW - us KW - weather AU - Trapp, Robert AU - Diffenbaugh, Noah AU - Brooks, Harold AU - Baldwin, Michael AU - Robinson, Eric AU - Pal, Jeremy PY - 2007/12/11/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705494104 ER -